Tennis · resolved market
Centurion 2: Mert Alkaya vs Arda Azkara
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x799a1b3f6a316b32a40cb41ec249a8ff443af87e664fa67ec7fd8f77480f1752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arda Azkaraof Mert Alkaya, Arda Azkara
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa226…bec6backed Mert Alkaya | 1c | 9,746$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Arda Azkara | 62c | 1,599$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.82 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Mert Alkaya | 66c | 1,427$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.53 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Arda Azkara | 25c | 999.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.98 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bd…d371backed Arda Azkara | 14c | 705.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.14 | 421 | 25.7%108 W · 313 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Mert Alkaya | 48c | 639.47$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.14 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mert Alkaya | 67c | 603.71$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.8 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Mert Alkaya | 55c | 596.46$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.48 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mert Alkaya | 49c | 566$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.9 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Arda Azkara | 25c | 500.98$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.98 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Arda Azkara | 49c | 485.87$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.19 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Mert Alkaya | 26c | 452.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Arda Azkara | 71c | 447.4$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Arda Azkara | 53c | 443.65$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.24 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Mert Alkaya | 74c | 400$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.45 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Mert Alkaya | 33c | 361.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Arda Azkara | 20c | 333$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 1,228 | 41.1%505 W · 723 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a00…9158backed Arda Azkara | 65c | 301.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 788 | 40.6%320 W · 468 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Arda Azkara | 29c | 230.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.66 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Mert Alkaya | 74c | 216$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Mert Alkaya | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 366 | 61.7%226 W · 140 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Arda Azkara | 26c | 195.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.87 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Mert Alkaya | 25c | 181.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mert Alkaya | 38c | 180.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…cfb9backed Mert Alkaya | 61c | 178.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.18 | 350 | 60.9%213 W · 137 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mert Alkaya | 39c | 178.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…5c4cbacked Arda Azkara | 29c | 159.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Mert Alkaya | 39c | 156.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Arda Azkara | 77c | 156$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked Arda Azkara | 52c | 155.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 282 | 49.3%139 W · 143 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mert Alkaya | 54c | 143.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Arda Azkara | 20c | 139.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.53 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Arda Azkara | 18c | 134.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…1db6backed Arda Azkara | 42c | 121.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 285 | 62.8%179 W · 106 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Mert Alkaya | 42c | 106.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Arda Azkara | 26c | 102.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked Mert Alkaya | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 360 | 53.1%191 W · 169 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked Arda Azkara | 31c | 99.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Mert Alkaya | 33c | 98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Arda Azkara | 76c | 91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 351 | 87.7%308 W · 43 L | +66.4wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Mert Alkaya | 63c | 89.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Mert Alkaya | 33c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Arda Azkara | 37c | 79.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Mert Alkaya | 73c | 77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Arda Azkara | 27c | 77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Mert Alkaya | 33c | 75.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Mert Alkaya | 38c | 71.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mert Alkaya | 46c | 69.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Mert Alkaya | 68c | 69.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Mert Alkaya | 57c | 68.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Arda Azkara | 25c | 62.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked Mert Alkaya | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 347 | 29.4%102 W · 245 L | -35.6wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…206cbacked Arda Azkara | 26c | 54.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 856 | 37.7%323 W · 533 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Mert Alkaya | 31c | 46.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 327 | 32.1%105 W · 222 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Mert Alkaya | 51c | 43.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Mert Alkaya | 37c | 40.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Mert Alkaya | 34c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e36…86c7backed Arda Azkara | 33c | 33.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Arda Azkara | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Mert Alkaya | 75c | 27.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff7…bf32backed Mert Alkaya | 41c | 27.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 202 | 59.4%120 W · 82 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Mert Alkaya | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Mert Alkaya | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Mert Alkaya | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Mert Alkaya | 79c | 24.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 917 | 55.5%509 W · 408 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Mert Alkaya | 74c | 23.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…9bc4backed Arda Azkara | 69c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 472 | 74.4%351 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Mert Alkaya | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Arda Azkara | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.