Tennis · resolved market
ITF W75 Leipzig Women: Marie Vogt vs Nellie Taraba Wallberg
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79a035854b26f9a770ae84b3cb012c46a66acbcc9bcbe7ace8d743cf2c53f288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nellie Taraba Wallbergof Marie Vogt, Nellie Taraba Wallberg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 49c | 4,276$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.16 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Marie Vogt | 42c | 2,546$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.53 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marie Vogt | 49c | 2,260$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.4 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Marie Vogt | 56c | 1,226$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.57 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13f…c336backed Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 55c | 1,098$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.79 | 221 | 23.1%51 W · 170 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 60c | 556.26$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Marie Vogt | 35c | 425$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 60c | 290.25$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Marie Vogt | 40c | 217$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 240 | 52.5%126 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Marie Vogt | 35c | 135.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Marie Vogt | 46c | 134.09$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…3b16backed Marie Vogt | 44c | 124.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 63c | 119.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Marie Vogt | 23c | 97.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 250 | 48.8%122 W · 128 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Marie Vogt | 16c | 95.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 429 | 46.4%199 W · 230 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 61c | 90.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Marie Vogt | 41c | 88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Marie Vogt | 38c | 78.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 79c | 72.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Marie Vogt | 43c | 69.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 414 | 40.3%167 W · 247 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Marie Vogt | 40c | 68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 298 | 51.7%154 W · 144 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 59c | 65.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Marie Vogt | 24c | 45.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…2f71backed Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 69c | 35.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 447 | 58.8%263 W · 184 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 69c | 33.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 374 | 60.4%226 W · 148 L | +29.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…10ffbacked Marie Vogt | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Marie Vogt | 36c | 29.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 474 | 53.2%252 W · 222 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 69c | 28.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 391 | 57.8%226 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e1…b1aebacked Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 61c | 26.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…f890backed Nellie Taraba Wallberg | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Marie Vogt | 42c | 24.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Marie Vogt | 47c | 21.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 259 | 51.7%134 W · 125 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Marie Vogt | 51c | 21.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Marie Vogt | 51c | 21.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 353 | 57.2%202 W · 151 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.