Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Ivory (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79c8936f27819517207f93d8e6650c3d82cf3d0f35f0ed67f923a2838eac00b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof MODUS, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ivory | 37c | 2,175$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.19 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…39d8backed MODUS | 60c | 1,509$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.74 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked MODUS | 69c | 1,388$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.32 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…935ebacked Ivory | 20c | 1,157$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.81 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked MODUS | 57c | 653.96$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.83 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…a11abacked Ivory | 9c | 613.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked MODUS | 32c | 567.5$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…b7aebacked Ivory | 68c | 499.04$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.35 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed MODUS | 47c | 484.16$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…09e2backed Ivory | 9c | 414.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c55…14bbbacked Ivory | 9c | 329.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Ivory | 32c | 266.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…40cfbacked Ivory | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed Ivory | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked MODUS | 78c | 198.32$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed MODUS | 49c | 198.22$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Ivory | 34c | 169.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS | 63c | 124.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ivory | 51c | 121.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed MODUS | 51c | 108.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed MODUS | 56c | 106.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Ivory | 32c | 104.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Ivory | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ivory | 42c | 90.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Ivory | 43c | 76.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ivory | 39c | 75.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x918d…1462backed MODUS | 51c | 67.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed MODUS | 76c | 64.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ivory | 42c | 59.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked MODUS | 59c | 59.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Ivory | 34c | 57.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…8107backed MODUS | 46c | 52.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ivory | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Ivory | 43c | 35.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed MODUS | 57c | 34.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Ivory | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…273dbacked Ivory | 42c | 28.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivory | 59c | 26.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…b90dbacked Ivory | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Ivory | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Ivory | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Ivory | 60c | 19.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed MODUS | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Ivory (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Ivory - Game 1 WinnerIvory won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Ivory - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.