TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x918d…1462

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst Premier League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.76
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$194
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.78
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$10.92
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.26
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.06
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$261.58
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 218.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.1
Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 238.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.49
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$102
Kings vs. Magic: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$102
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$102
Lakers vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$34.3
Lakers vs. Pacers: O/U 238.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$147
All 15 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+114.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$39.99
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+203%+$97.43
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-04-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$4.8
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-04-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)backed Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.97
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: MODUS vs Ivory (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Abacked MODUS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$33.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$16.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winnerbacked Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$17.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$347.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Bitfix Gaming vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Playoffsbacked Bitfix Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-04-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.62
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.