Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79d010348c3c6025a8e937ddbf23b7f25637778eac0f6db9b2530e9cd59a775d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- GLYPHof Satan666, GLYPH
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Satan666 | 29c | 874.36$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.29 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Satan666 | 36c | 848.22$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.22 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Satan666 | 53c | 672$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.26 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Satan666 | 19c | 630.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.58 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed GLYPH | 75c | 580$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.4 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed GLYPH | 52c | 458.12$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.08 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed GLYPH | 79c | 400$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked GLYPH | 77c | 368.67$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed GLYPH | 66c | 328.75$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked GLYPH | 76c | 267.07$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Satan666 | 24c | 214.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Satan666 | 36c | 180$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed GLYPH | 73c | 178$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Satan666 | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Satan666 | 21c | 112.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5341…92d6backed GLYPH | 57c | 101.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Satan666 | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed GLYPH | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Satan666 | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked GLYPH | 49c | 55.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed GLYPH | 71c | 49.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9662…af06backed GLYPH | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed GLYPH | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs GLYPH (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageGLYPH won
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs GLYPH - Game 1 WinnerGLYPH won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.