NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Patriots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79d3128ebb405b12f275bfaca69eee3c0670bb314e9460fb1c0547ec9a356e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Commanders, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Commanders | 33c | 2,712$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.54 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…2676backed Patriots | 79c | 1,489$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Patriots | 32c | 1,416$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.52 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed Commanders | 50c | 1,078$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed Patriots | 73c | 1,074$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…b93fbacked Commanders | 27c | 1,062$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.07 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Patriots | 78c | 1,002$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.44 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Commanders | 27c | 856.39$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Patriots | 75c | 662.66$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.03 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Commanders | 45c | 656.97$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.92 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Patriots | 77c | 522.31$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.83 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…4236backed Commanders | 13c | 500$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.5 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Patriots | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Patriots | 29c | 479.76$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…c772backed Commanders | 34c | 477.24$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Commanders | 22c | 453$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.34 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Patriots | 62c | 426.88$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.47 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Patriots | 74c | 400.34$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Patriots | 75c | 328.08$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Commanders | 29c | 320.71$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.81 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…969dbacked Patriots | 73c | 236.85$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Commanders | 21c | 233.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.44 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Commanders | 26c | 227.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Patriots | 58c | 210$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6ab3backed Patriots | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Commanders | 16c | 202.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Commanders | 28c | 200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Commanders | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Patriots | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…c433backed Patriots | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Commanders | 26c | 135.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d6b3backed Patriots | 79c | 134.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…d812backed Commanders | 18c | 123.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked Commanders | 26c | 101.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Patriots | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Patriots | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…d04cbacked Patriots | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Commanders | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c5…132ebacked Commanders | 31c | 89.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Commanders | 22c | 86.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Commanders | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -77%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Patriots | 73c | 82.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Commanders | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked Commanders | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Patriots | 69c | 66.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Commanders | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Commanders | 25c | 57.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…030bbacked Patriots | 79c | 53.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Patriots | 73c | 40.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…ee3dbacked Patriots | 74c | 40.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed Patriots | 73c | 35.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Patriots | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…5e88backed Patriots | 61c | 28.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Patriots | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Patriots | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…5bccbacked Patriots | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Patriots | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Patriots | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e5…46a8backed Patriots | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.