South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a055d29efd6f534345c58676b6206717580e9ff227b026717f7bfeed05346b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 33c | 1,413$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.9 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…b28bbacked Yes | 8c | 987.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 18c | 918.17$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 36c | 658.7$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.56 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 377$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 354.59$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.92 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 77c | 276.58$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 72c | 237.65$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 38c | 215.27$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.47 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Yes | 16c | 206$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 13c | 175.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 55c | 154.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 49c | 154.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…8815backed Yes | 61c | 139.65$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 8c | 134.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 16c | 131.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 15c | 122.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 16c | 111.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Yes | 27c | 104.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Yes | 27c | 88.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 62c | 87.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 39c | 86.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 15c | 79.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 41c | 69.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 56c | 66.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…25e8backed Yes | 57c | 66.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 49c | 53.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 60c | 49.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 76c | 45.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 64c | 38.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…896cbacked Yes | 57c | 37.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed No | 50c | 34.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 43c | 26.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b59…db3fbacked Yes | 58c | 20.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 50c | 20.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 230 | 44.3%102 W · 128 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-04-26?No won
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.