Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a21a9fe17c1d551193761d7fb7e9bb3dbe5d69affc7c575f7034a258ff4aeb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 70c | 415.94$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.19 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…2406backed No | 78c | 411.45$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 38c | 359.56$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.14 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 340.66$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.68 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 216.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 205.66$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 32c | 202.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.36 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 59c | 172.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 40c | 156.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 155.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 144.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 70c | 142.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 136.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed Yes | 37c | 135.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 38c | 131.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 119.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 119.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 79c | 116.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked No | 63c | 116.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 56c | 97.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 73c | 95.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 53c | 90.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 62c | 89.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 40c | 81.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 79.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 25c | 77.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 75.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 35c | 72.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 71.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…079bbacked No | 70c | 70.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 69.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 18c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…1171backed Yes | 76c | 61.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 35c | 60.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 68c | 59.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 56.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 52.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 32c | 49.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 48c | 41.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 35c | 39.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 64c | 36.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 50c | 32.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 64c | 17.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.