NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a463670dab226354119e40c0dd33160e5406c50b5caca0111039387abe1c4f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Bucks, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 54c | 21,084$11,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,698.45 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Bucks | 46c | 15,873$7,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,305.49 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bucks | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bucks | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mavericks | 50c | 2,001$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mavericks | 50c | 988.68$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.34 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Bucks | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 48c | 958.58$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bucks | 46c | 826.34$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 54c | 448.12$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.19 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bucks | 48c | 366.25$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 47c | 248$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 245.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Bucks | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 47c | 195.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Mavericks | 50c | 136$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Mavericks | 53c | 124.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bucks | 45c | 105.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Mavericks | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Bucks | 52c | 67.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 49c | 55.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Mavericks | 52c | 54.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Bucks | 52c | 38.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be8…f449backed Bucks | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mavericks | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Bucks | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Mavericks | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)this page
- Bucks vs. MavericksBucks won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.