NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1539901c32aeaa54d099d4e104ba6e6a6e08f110072e73d0a1c80ab7cdf42eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 884.97$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.47 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 877.53$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Under | 57c | 555$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.27 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 114.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 63c | 55.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Under | 57c | 40.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Under | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 43c | 23.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…13d8backed Under | 56c | 18.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 75c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5this page
- Bucks vs. MavericksBucks won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.