NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e4ad5fa0657e043f87b00cb75ab5d24b388677817197dc4210b188cb35159e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Bucks, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Bucks | 50c | 78,140$39,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,058.07 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks | 50c | 73,341$36,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,729.3 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 48c | 7,588$3,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,946.98 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bucks | 56c | 5,921$3,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.42 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks | 49c | 3,344$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Mavericks | 50c | 2,919$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.07 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 47c | 2,825$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Bucks | 54c | 1,979$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.4 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks | 44c | 1,660$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.14 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Bucks | 55c | 1,563$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.65 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bucks | 53c | 1,019$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.41 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Bucks | 50c | 998.82$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Mavericks | 49c | 932$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.98 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Mavericks | 49c | 931.99$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.98 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Bucks | 51c | 921.57$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Bucks | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Mavericks | 49c | 342.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.24 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mavericks | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Mavericks | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…1eedbacked Mavericks | 50c | 199.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 95 | 28.4%27 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Bucks | 50c | 198.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 47c | 194.72$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…0bf3backed Bucks | 48c | 194$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33e…2e73backed Mavericks | 52c | 182$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…401cbacked Bucks | 48c | 175$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d565backed Mavericks | 52c | 163$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…c7b4backed Mavericks | 46c | 158.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Bucks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Bucks | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Mavericks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Bucks | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Bucks | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Bucks | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bucks | 56c | 71.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Mavericks | 49c | 62.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Mavericks | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Mavericks | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Bucks | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf5…443bbacked Bucks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Bucks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Bucks | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Mavericks | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Mavericks | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1fa0backed Mavericks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…0a0fbacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-2.5)this page
- Bucks vs. MavericksBucks won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineMavericks won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 229.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Bucks (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Bucks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Bucks (-4.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.