Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a82285ea5d78281ca92bc4d1049a85329cd655d06781b99a082f3981a66e5b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 265.2$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 76c | 262.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 222.97$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 182.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 43c | 150.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.53 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 147$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 137.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 134.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 60c | 99.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 46c | 92.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 83.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 67.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 23c | 64.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 44c | 64.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 40c | 63.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d80…81f2backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 31c | 54.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 53.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 44c | 53.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 69c | 53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 51.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 60c | 50.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 41c | 47.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 45.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…307cbacked Yes | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed No | 77c | 26.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 63c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9540…9f9abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 22.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked Yes | 54c | 18.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 16.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 70c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.