Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ac2721c4703dce5a0236653516c68649ff00a6617f7fb8d97952e6c03167800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Heroic | 46c | 4,101$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.28 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…6e77backed PARIVISION | 48c | 1,500$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.42 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed PARIVISION | 54c | 1,147$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.74 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Heroic | 52c | 1,102$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.02 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION | 54c | 1,017$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.83 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed PARIVISION | 52c | 828.23$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.32 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Heroic | 51c | 518.38$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.37 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Heroic | 47c | 512.08$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.68 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 504.19$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 472.05$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.96 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Heroic | 50c | 451.05$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 397.17$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.67 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…8c55backed PARIVISION | 49c | 393.25$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION | 50c | 385.92$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.24 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed PARIVISION | 54c | 359.97$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.59 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Heroic | 54c | 270.49$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.85 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed PARIVISION | 54c | 216.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed PARIVISION | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Heroic | 49c | 199.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Heroic | 49c | 197.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Heroic | 45c | 196.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Heroic | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Heroic | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Heroic | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 169.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed PARIVISION | 54c | 108.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed Heroic | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1979…c15cbacked Heroic | 51c | 100.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 96.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Heroic | 50c | 94.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed PARIVISION | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Heroic | 40c | 82.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked PARIVISION | 51c | 81.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed PARIVISION | 60c | 80.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed PARIVISION | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed PARIVISION | 53c | 74.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cc…ce77backed Heroic | 47c | 62.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed PARIVISION | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed PARIVISION | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked PARIVISION | 54c | 27.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group StagePARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.