Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ac5b5e3fb77cc656c5649bca6138469a6811ec93b80331630fd3fc7f0f34098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Fnatic | 74c | 599.99$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.99 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 388.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.34 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 326.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Fnatic | 69c | 310$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.8 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…c9cbbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 231.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.04 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 151.74$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 664 | 45.6%303 W · 361 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0f…1305backed Natus Vincere | 27c | 131.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.91 | 1,463 | 61.4%899 W · 564 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee3…9a19backed Fnatic | 74c | 104.16$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Fnatic | 68c | 103.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7db…ee3ebacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 96.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Fnatic | 73c | 72.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…c177backed Fnatic | 72c | 45.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Fnatic | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Fnatic | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 540 | 54.3%293 W · 247 L | +26.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…ca2abacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 27.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x868f…5da6backed Fnatic | 73c | 25.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Fnatic | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -14.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Fnatic | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Fnatic | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Natus Vincere won
- First Blood in Game 2?Fnatic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.