Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7add53dbd41ef04bc903b6f52b80fc0746a7a9938785a27899e653dcb1fc9786
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 496.69$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked No | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 65c | 280.8$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 36c | 228.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 58c | 197.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 186.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 10c | 157.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 64c | 142.75$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 62c | 136.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 79c | 112.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 47c | 92.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 34c | 79.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 79.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…7423backed No | 15c | 75.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 37c | 74.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 75c | 74.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d9…2566backed Yes | 25c | 73.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 28c | 68.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 53c | 60.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…dc4ebacked Yes | 28c | 49.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 31c | 48.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 21c | 46.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 39.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 76c | 30.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 64c | 16.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.