Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9d0327ac2a2c4189922952c05f7830e47fc9d71da8b4d3a32ed5231d59a225
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc326…ffaebacked Yes | 20c | 967.6$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 880.31$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.11 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 522.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 77c | 487.39$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 24c | 428.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 10c | 226.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 212.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 20c | 176.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…306ebacked Yes | 23c | 170.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 15c | 146.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 37c | 126.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 17c | 112.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 108.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 70c | 93.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed No | 76c | 88.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…eb8abacked Yes | 41c | 86.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 84.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 17c | 81.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 37c | 80.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 27c | 79.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 22c | 75.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 74.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 20c | 71.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 67.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…2cefbacked No | 65c | 64.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 74c | 58.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 32c | 57.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 51c | 54.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 53.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 49.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 42c | 48.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…dc4ebacked Yes | 32c | 43.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 74c | 40.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 72c | 39.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…5f37backed Yes | 39c | 35.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked No | 76c | 34.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 64c | 34.12$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 64c | 34.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 50c | 34.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 33.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 51c | 25.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 25.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761e…8343backed No | 76c | 24.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked No | 76c | 21.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 79c | 21.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…f1e3backed No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…ab72backed No | 65c | 19.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…00f4backed No | 80c | 18.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…c8bbbacked No | 74c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 75c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.