Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af9c791f6431ac8598c1cbc15f1572c09b2e69d5b0d6bdb94eb0595905ad782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,234 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 4c | 583.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb7…3644backed Yes | 59c | 508.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 60c | 299.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 53c | 216.86$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…3145backed Yes | 45c | 214.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 205.58$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.26 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 45c | 191.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 184$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 14c | 171.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Yes | 50c | 156.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 56c | 152.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 40c | 142.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 63c | 110.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 51c | 102.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 49c | 100.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 38c | 100.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 92.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 83.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 82.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 69.94$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 65.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 49c | 64.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed Yes | 64c | 60.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 55.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd88…8bcabacked Yes | 55c | 54.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 45c | 51.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 41c | 51.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 46.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 60c | 41.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 56c | 40.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…ae0cbacked Yes | 67c | 40.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 54c | 37.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 59c | 35.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…3d69backed Yes | 61c | 35.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 34.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 36c | 32.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 39c | 31.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…3a2abacked Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 49c | 20.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 56c | 18.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2f…0a46backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.