Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ca82d88b14500e48749cab74a141ca01526f9c61228fe09518a683cfe7381b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,128 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42c4…04c5backed Yes | 29c | 2,860$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…391cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,820$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…d450backed No | 71c | 1,430$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…2580backed No | 71c | 1,430$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c02…eb5ebacked No | 72c | 1,420$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…0dd7backed No | 72c | 1,410$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 456.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 447$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…3145backed Yes | 36c | 328.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 27c | 203.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 197.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 30c | 185.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 172.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.81 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 19c | 170$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 17c | 166.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 71c | 166.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 164.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 67c | 119.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 115.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 114.51$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 102.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 27c | 97.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…6f90backed Yes | 74c | 97.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 33c | 89.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 25c | 85.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 25c | 80.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 66.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 63.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 62.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 55.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…ae0cbacked Yes | 21c | 54.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…2807backed Yes | 36c | 50.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 49.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 33c | 40.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2b…b91fbacked Yes | 71c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 71c | 15.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.