NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1d0d2380b498fe398a4b68e24333ba8df2a7e4601c1526902f1a0d90b690af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Heat, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Heat | 50c | 23,070$11,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,535 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Kings | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Kings | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Heat | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 49c | 3,641$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0323…77e4backed Kings | 48c | 2,820$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…4976backed Heat | 52c | 2,820$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…a9e6backed Kings | 49c | 2,135$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.84 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Heat | 51c | 1,944$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Kings | 49c | 830.81$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.71 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Kings | 49c | 642.86$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.86 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 49c | 561.47$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.38 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Heat | 51c | 250.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Heat | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kings | 50c | 218.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.13 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Heat | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…0f92backed Heat | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Heat | 50c | 198.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Heat | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Heat | 49c | 165.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Kings | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa633…5692backed Kings | 50c | 131.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Kings | 51c | 118.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 49c | 109$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Kings | 50c | 103.05$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Kings | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…6219backed Heat | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…795ebacked Heat | 51c | 83.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb742…126abacked Kings | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 49c | 73.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Heat | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Kings | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d12…31e0backed Heat | 51c | 54.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08d…6a83backed Heat | 50c | 52.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…e9dbbacked Kings | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ad…7024backed Heat | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Kings | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a38…7446backed Heat | 51c | 48.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Heat | 50c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c46…8471backed Kings | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…7b1ebacked Heat | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Heat | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc968…c59bbacked Kings | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…2f92backed Kings | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 199 | 44.7%89 W · 110 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…739abacked Heat | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)this page
- Kings vs. HeatKings won
- Kings vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)Kings won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.