NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x714ab4a09375b3751d38981d2592fea557e8364217c01c43e2beaf2cfd3d2039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Heat, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b6…da08backed Heat | 54c | 7,000$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Kings | 46c | 7,000$3,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Heat | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 47c | 2,862$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.88 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 44c | 2,451$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…9829backed Heat | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.7 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…0ba8backed Heat | 56c | 801.39$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Heat | 53c | 602.29$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.72 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Kings | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Heat | 55c | 365$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Heat | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Kings | 46c | 218.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Kings | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 623 | 51.4%320 W · 303 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Heat | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Heat | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Heat | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Heat | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Kings | 46c | 174.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.85 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 45c | 170.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 46c | 140.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…6ea7backed Heat | 38c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 141 | 45.4%64 W · 77 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Kings | 45c | 122.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 45c | 122$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…5e83backed Heat | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 47c | 119.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Heat | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Heat | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Kings | 44c | 50.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Kings | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Heat | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Heat | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Kings | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Heat | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Heat | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Kings | 46c | 33.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Heat | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Heat | 55c | 28.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Heat | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f68…5e99backed Heat | 55c | 26.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 60cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heat | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Kings | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-7.5)this page
- Kings vs. HeatKings won
- Kings vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Under won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Under won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Under won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Under won
- Kings vs. Heat: O/U 242.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-8.5)Kings won
- Spread: Heat (-9.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.