NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Heat: O/U 240.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fdcee82452635d423d02f4c763f3a4daca91c61587a216c1c9aa649334553ae

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $24,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,661 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	12,003$5,938 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,065.17	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	51c	9,986$5,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,084.82	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Over	50c	5,730$2,865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,865	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Under	53c	2,792$1,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,312.44	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4871…f143backed Under	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under	49c	1,544$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$794.14	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	50c	1,125$562 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$562.33	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Over	46c	525$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.5	623	51.4%320 W · 303 L	-13.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	52c	453$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.56	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over	53c	422.64$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Over	52c	209.99$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.19	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…8646backed Over	45c	182.02$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.91	625	41.9%262 W · 363 L	-32.7wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-11%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64ae…532bbacked Over	50c	121.58$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.79	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ce…14b4backed Under	56c	107.14$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.14	121	57%69 W · 52 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under	48c	104.17$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.17	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1351…bebcbacked Over	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	165	52.7%87 W · 78 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	658	55.6%366 W · 292 L	+27.0wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	50c	99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd64…c090backed Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d8…48b7backed Over	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfac…75debacked Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-4.1wins	-0.23per pick	45cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x571c…0bb5backed Over	55c	37.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	70	58.6%41 W · 29 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	56c	36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Under	54c	27.78$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.78	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f68…5e99backed Under	56c	25.89$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.39	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-3.8wins	-0.47per pick	60cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0x2c48…7d6fbacked Over	56c	19.64$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kings vs. Heat: O/U 240.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event