NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f34808df445f9a667534d196210dfb12d2f66ec704cc847fdf8e00f40e3d991

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,623 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2c57…c94dbacked Over	51c	20,458$10,432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,431.66	51	51%26 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	12,371$5,973 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,397.44	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Over	1c	12,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	298	10.4%31 W · 267 L	+22.5wins	+0.08per pick	3cpaid	+230.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8786…982dbacked Over	48c	8,100$3,888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,888	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+17%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x270b…ff56backed Under	52c	8,100$4,212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,888	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Over	51c	6,829$3,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,500	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4871…f143backed Under	49c	6,122$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,122.45	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Over	51c	4,428$2,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,258.43	175	54.9%96 W · 79 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf1…5831backed Under	49c	4,082$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,081.63	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+49.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Under	49c	2,980$1,460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,519.8	483	47.2%228 W · 255 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	49c	2,466$1,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,257.66	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Over	52c	2,290$1,191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,190.8	176	58%102 W · 74 L	+13.5wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Under	50c	2,196$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,096.3	248	47.6%118 W · 130 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Under	49c	1,600$784 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$815.99	339	45.1%153 W · 186 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Under	52c	1,367$711 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$656.12	228	45.2%103 W · 125 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4e…498abacked Under	51c	1,351$689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$661.98	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9136…8e9dbacked Under	49c	1,231$603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$627.61	10	50%5 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Under	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	76	52.6%40 W · 36 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae5…b896backed Over	57c	800$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-3.6wins	-0.18per pick	53cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Over	53c	681.28$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.08	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27df…e67cbacked Over	55c	574.55$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316	84	38.1%32 W · 52 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Over	52c	556.73$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.5	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-6.0wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	47c	500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	726	47.7%346 W · 380 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63e2…bb9bbacked Over	48c	500$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b1f…c37dbacked Under	52c	500$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	49c	491.75$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$248.54	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	45c	432$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.6	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Under	49c	409.98$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.09	406	48%195 W · 211 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	51c	380.57$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.09	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d53…061cbacked Under	54c	300$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Under	50c	293.2$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.6	950	49.4%469 W · 481 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	366	49.5%181 W · 185 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Under	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Over	48c	199.99$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	623	51.4%320 W · 303 L	-13.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9018…c0d1backed Under	50c	192$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	48c	180.31$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.15	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d56…0ba5backed Under	47c	170$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.1	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…6063backed Under	50c	136.9$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.45	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.4wins	+0.34per pick	51cpaid	+60.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd995…9bcbbacked Under	49c	120.41$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.41	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Over	15c	117.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	2,169	40.8%885 W · 1,284 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	52c	114.74$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.08	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Under	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	555	33.5%186 W · 369 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e6…5920backed Over	51c	107.49$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.82	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Under	48c	95.99$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.44	245	52.7%129 W · 116 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over	55c	92.22$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.72	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Over	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	51c	87$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2aac…049fbacked Over	51c	80.96$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.29	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under	49c	80$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.12	326	49.7%162 W · 164 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under	49c	80$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.12	318	52.2%166 W · 152 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Under	49c	80$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.12	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Under	49c	80$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.12	251	50.2%126 W · 125 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e0c…b90abacked Under	45c	70$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.5	174	44.3%77 W · 97 L	-6.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x024e…2e48backed Over	57c	70$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under	48c	67.2$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.94	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Under	48c	66.46$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.24	106	46.2%49 W · 57 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7de7…4720backed Over	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	73	50.7%37 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Under	44c	60$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x602e…2980backed Under	50c	58$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Under	45c	57$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.35	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Over	48c	52.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda84…ad33backed Under	50c	52$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4556…2b35backed Under	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	129	52.7%68 W · 61 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Under	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	199	44.7%89 W · 110 L	-15.0wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f56…f93cbacked Under	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf526…55c8backed Under	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+2.5wins	+0.35per pick	22cpaid	+101.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	60c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Over	41c	35.26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.42	228	36.4%83 W · 145 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f4…8081backed Under	48c	32$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.64	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7773…f936backed Over	55c	31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-5.1wins	-0.30per pick	54cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3d37…51e7backed Under	49c	30.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.61	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.27per pick	61cpaid	+49.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	133	38.3%51 W · 82 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Under	52c	27.1$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.01	220	55%121 W · 99 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Under	49c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.75	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Under	50c	24.55$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.28	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29bd…80c9backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	186	49.5%92 W · 94 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ece…8211backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.16per pick	59cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Over	52c	19.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	448	44.2%198 W · 250 L	-11.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kings vs. Heat: O/U 239.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event