Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Moutet vs Musetti
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b7c274cafdb03249bc7e6610985968a87f208fa4f3cc58062c3b0a3f018ab4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Moutet, Musetti
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Musetti | 67c | 5,500$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.99 | 441 | 63.7%281 W · 160 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Moutet | 28c | 3,564$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.63 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Musetti | 71c | 1,382$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.62 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Moutet | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Moutet | 39c | 863.35$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.71 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…c9ecbacked Moutet | 39c | 617.56$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.85 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…3d1fbacked Musetti | 69c | 512.17$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.9 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Moutet | 42c | 428.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.37 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Moutet | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 234 | 57.3%134 W · 100 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Moutet | 39c | 314.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Moutet | 17c | 293.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Musetti | 60c | 285.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.53 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Moutet | 31c | 279.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Moutet | 30c | 202$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…e926backed Moutet | 30c | 191.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f30dbacked Musetti | 73c | 187.87$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96cb…75cbbacked Moutet | 34c | 169.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.62 | 114 | 26.3%30 W · 84 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Moutet | 35c | 136.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Musetti | 67c | 131.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 435 | 53.1%231 W · 204 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Musetti | 68c | 120.84$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Moutet | 32c | 86.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Moutet | 39c | 74.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe041…be79backed Musetti | 69c | 71.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 53 | 77.4%41 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Musetti | 76c | 61.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Moutet | 39c | 57.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Moutet | 30c | 51.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x525d…1f1bbacked Musetti | 78c | 37.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Moutet | 47c | 37.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Musetti | 78c | 27.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…0888backed Musetti | 65c | 26.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc8…d150backed Musetti | 76c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4a…d477backed Musetti | 76c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Moutet vs Musettithis page
- Barcelona Open: Corentin Moutet vs Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo Musetti won
- Corentin Moutet vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Moutet vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5)Musetti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.