Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22808b3e99449cfe897e969f7cf44245de2cfb1c38c80ec784bf9004e0bafaf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Moutet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Musetti | 66c | 1,923$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.97 | 441 | 63.7%281 W · 160 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Musetti | 50c | 1,130$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Moutet | 55c | 887.14$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.45 | 207 | 48.3%100 W · 107 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…c08cbacked Moutet | 51c | 776.48$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…3d1fbacked Musetti | 54c | 761.22$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.88 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Musetti | 54c | 630.59$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.26 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Moutet | 46c | 626.13$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.13 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Moutet | 51c | 613.01$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.86 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Moutet | 46c | 590.6$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.94 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Moutet | 36c | 533.16$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.29 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Musetti | 51c | 507.84$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.84 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Moutet | 50c | 475.3$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…6aefbacked Musetti | 62c | 472.84$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Moutet | 43c | 438.23$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.44 | 365 | 48.2%176 W · 189 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Musetti | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 600 | 55.7%334 W · 266 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Moutet | 46c | 380$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Musetti | 66c | 316.14$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.49 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Musetti | 62c | 315.23$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3273…0c24backed Moutet | 50c | 306.06$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Moutet | 48c | 284.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Musetti | 68c | 267.25$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Moutet | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 148 | 51.4%76 W · 72 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Musetti | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Moutet | 49c | 199.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Moutet | 46c | 181.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Moutet | 55c | 173.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Moutet | 34c | 159.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Moutet | 51c | 150.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Musetti | 52c | 140.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 184 | 54.3%100 W · 84 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed Moutet | 24c | 121.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 150 | 58.7%88 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Moutet | 37c | 115.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Musetti | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 583 | 59.2%345 W · 238 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Musetti | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Musetti | 55c | 93.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 116 | 41.4%48 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Musetti | 67c | 93.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Musetti | 53c | 82.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Musetti | 78c | 77.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Musetti | 66c | 74.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b3…aaaebacked Musetti | 53c | 72.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4c…2a53backed Moutet | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Musetti | 54c | 61.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Musetti | 50c | 61.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 535 | 44.1%236 W · 299 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Musetti | 62c | 58.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Musetti | 50c | 56.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Moutet | 51c | 55.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Musetti | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Moutet | 51c | 49.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Moutet | 49c | 49.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 418 | 46.2%193 W · 225 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…f218backed Musetti | 54c | 48.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 357 | 53.8%192 W · 165 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Musetti | 54c | 39.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Moutet | 50c | 38.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Moutet | 34c | 32.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 361 | 35.7%129 W · 232 L | -35.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Moutet | 42c | 32.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Musetti | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Moutet | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Musetti | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Moutet | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Moutet | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3353…5ab2backed Musetti | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Moutet | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f2…b3d8backed Musetti | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Musetti (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5)this page
- Barcelona Open: Corentin Moutet vs Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo Musetti won
- Corentin Moutet vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Moutet vs. Musetti: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Moutet vs MusettiMusetti won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.