TailMyPicks
Market

Tennis · resolved market

Dubai Tennis Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Karen Khachanov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Brooksbyof Brooksby, Khachanov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$428,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$484,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $428,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf6c…7e66backed Brooksby67c21,573$14,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,019.881,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Brooksby38c20,738$7,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,951.8576546.8%358 W · 407 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Khachanov62c20,000$12,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,399.9927063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Brooksby38c17,495$6,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,847.7916242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Brooksby35c15,652$5,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,172.4113439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Brooksby37c15,000$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,449.998429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Khachanov64c13,371$8,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,50036968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Khachanov47c12,009$5,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,702.282,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Brooksby36c11,956$4,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,624.3910541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Brooksby36c11,145$4,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,132.571,68350.6%851 W · 832 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Brooksby35c10,000$3,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,502.0743051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Khachanov62c8,060$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,997.227560%165 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Khachanov62c7,688$4,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,787.3535247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Khachanov64c7,425$4,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,784.1248851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Brooksby42c7,081$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,114.777,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a70…3123backed Khachanov66c5,940$3,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Brooksby41c5,733$2,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.42,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Khachanov64c5,641$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60044754.4%243 W · 204 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Khachanov38c4,992$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.6711,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Khachanov35c4,823$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6808,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Khachanov64c4,796$3,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,045.8330241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…a127backed Khachanov64c4,688$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010756.1%60 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2073…385bbacked Khachanov65c4,615$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0008042.5%34 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Brooksby37c4,444$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.7112147.1%57 W · 64 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c2f…499cbacked Khachanov66c4,289$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.0410345.6%47 W · 56 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07b7…00a0backed Khachanov67c4,210$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800.81323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-53.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Brooksby54c4,035$2,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.912,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Brooksby38c4,029$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.9831332.3%101 W · 212 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Khachanov63c4,000$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.034459.1%26 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b7…7984backed Khachanov43c3,513$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002924.1%7 W · 22 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-60.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Khachanov53c3,315$1,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.1565157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Brooksby36c3,218$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.371,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Khachanov64c3,136$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Brooksby38c3,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,86012442.7%53 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Khachanov64c2,986$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90926158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Khachanov13c2,777$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3506033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Khachanov39c2,745$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,065.142,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Khachanov43c2,447$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.231,16144.3%514 W · 647 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aad…20aebacked Khachanov63c2,377$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50052460.9%319 W · 205 L+0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Brooksby36c2,347$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.4220542.4%87 W · 118 L-12.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Brooksby35c2,222$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.831,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Khachanov29c2,215$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.4275748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Khachanov53c2,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Brooksby38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.9773453%389 W · 345 L+36.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99fb…acbabacked Khachanov71c1,871$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.226065%169 W · 91 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade0…e568backed Brooksby43c1,789$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.656344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Khachanov63c1,738$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.6738652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Brooksby37c1,722$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.621,12542.8%482 W · 643 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e4…5632backed Khachanov14c1,611$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Khachanov62c1,600$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9921,43728.5%409 W · 1,028 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce90…d285backed Khachanov63c1,590$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.74146.3%19 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf3c…f5ffbacked Khachanov58c1,589$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.8611859.3%70 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed Khachanov64c1,581$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Khachanov63c1,575$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,27756.6%723 W · 554 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf26…319bbacked Khachanov65c1,550$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Brooksby37c1,544$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.276,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Khachanov49c1,400$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.5149250.6%249 W · 243 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Brooksby37c1,352$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.7611045.5%50 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e1e…b911backed Khachanov65c1,267$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.525354.7%29 W · 24 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Brooksby36c1,250$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8006149.2%30 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Brooksby40c1,250$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75099139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Brooksby36c1,250$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.994,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f6…d81abacked Khachanov54c1,247$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…8276backed Brooksby39c1,241$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.8224350.2%122 W · 121 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Khachanov17c1,201$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Brooksby36c1,191$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.1995140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bfb…9c40backed Khachanov57c1,182$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.46448.4%31 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked Khachanov62c1,137$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.175451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Khachanov59c1,127$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.9158438.2%223 W · 361 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c1…df04backed Khachanov65c1,077$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.2718439.1%72 W · 112 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Khachanov41c1,054$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.5862534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Khachanov65c1,046$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.351,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Brooksby34c1,007$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.7447057.2%269 W · 201 L+16.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Khachanov18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18081938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Brooksby37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6303043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Brooksby37c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63057645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Brooksby38c999.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.991,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Brooksby39c987.09$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.0963247.6%301 W · 331 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Khachanov52c960.88$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011046.4%51 W · 59 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8f…801cbacked Khachanov63c950.42$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.491450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44d…8dbbbacked Khachanov63c946.04$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Brooksby56c928.44$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.411,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Khachanov33c845.87$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27765652.1%342 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Khachanov67c817.32$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.5420848.1%100 W · 108 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd6…5f62backed Khachanov62c800$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49645457.9%263 W · 191 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Brooksby38c780.58$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.5815532.9%51 W · 104 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed Khachanov64c773.96$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.059656.3%54 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Brooksby37c717.73$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.1740744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ae…fdbabacked Khachanov64c700.47$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Khachanov62c700$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4349452.1%49 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa289…2ac3backed Brooksby36c700$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1d…1b42backed Khachanov64c700$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Brooksby39c689.23$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.054,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x640b…ec00backed Khachanov63c678.95$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.749738.1%37 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Khachanov45c671.11$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30238739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Khachanov61c655.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004860.4%29 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Khachanov65c647.32$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.322,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Khachanov68c646$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.2865959%389 W · 270 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd71a…67f5backed Khachanov25c645.13$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3518247.3%86 W · 96 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Khachanov63c590.96$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.381047.9%388 W · 422 L+30.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.