Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 86°F or higher on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b9a439a3c725182c38f2d6dbdb2e6cbe99be198baadd67364cdd76827256611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 1c | 1,016$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed No | 23c | 615.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 18c | 216.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 22c | 179.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 77c | 160.9$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 7c | 151.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked No | 23c | 151.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 12c | 132.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 12c | 122.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc600…a575backed No | 16c | 100.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 79c | 85.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 14c | 73.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 74c | 45.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 74c | 40.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 77c | 32.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 75c | 30.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 78c | 28.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe750…c6babacked Yes | 79c | 28.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 74c | 27.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 79c | 22.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 74c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 71c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ad…e485backed Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 71c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 86°F or higher on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.