Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ba567421c57a01df9c356f1766196bc5d73abd88db2d0f9e5c73d347bdc0bd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 366.27$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 52c | 333.02$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.25 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.17 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 272.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 272$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 198.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 45c | 188.13$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.66 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 187.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 163.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…e526backed Yes | 46c | 153.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.21 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 50c | 143.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 38c | 140.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 41c | 138.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 132$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 48c | 130.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 123.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 44c | 120.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 120.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 45c | 118.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…7e71backed Yes | 55c | 116.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 62c | 113.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 35c | 108.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed Yes | 32c | 101.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 63c | 95.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 94.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 47c | 92.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…a5a7backed No | 22c | 85.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 82.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 82.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 25c | 81.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 79c | 79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 40c | 75.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed Yes | 16c | 74.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 70.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 67.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…a33bbacked Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 64.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 78c | 63.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 37c | 61.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 35c | 54.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 75c | 53.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65d…2fcbbacked No | 58c | 50.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 28c | 50.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 51c | 49.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 52c | 48.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 55c | 44.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 78c | 44.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 38c | 41.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 37c | 40.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 40.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 38.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 37c | 37.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 45c | 35.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 46c | 35.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 30c | 35.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd378…f282backed No | 35c | 31.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 45c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 30.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 53c | 29.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 53c | 28.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 67c | 26.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 64c | 23.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 70c | 20.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 63c | 16.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.