Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d674722643e98b32da81be07632484156549c105003e8a0b148b76a01898841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 264.78$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked Yes | 24c | 254.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 229.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 13c | 224.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 176.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 159.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 157.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 147.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 12c | 143.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 75c | 127.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 126.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 119.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 116.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed Yes | 10c | 116.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 114.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 77c | 114$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 111.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 30c | 111$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 39c | 107.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 100.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 23c | 90.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 76c | 81.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 19c | 74.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 22c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 69.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 64.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 59.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 24c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 55.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 80c | 52.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 23c | 51.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…e575backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 45.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 79c | 43.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 41.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 32.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 80c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 75c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 76c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 17.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.