WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Fever
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c15d15c6bc918282e4ab832b31ecf065218ddca471f856b23fa1b1ad717d1d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Feverof Mercury, Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Mercury | 16c | 12,975$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.8 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Mercury | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Fever | 41c | 2,979$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,757.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Mercury | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Fever | 38c | 1,984$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.74 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Fever | 38c | 1,686$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.55 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mercury | 51c | 1,241$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.84 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Mercury | 56c | 1,231$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.63 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Fever | 39c | 1,000$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.71 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Fever | 64c | 979.79$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.48 | 232 | 34.5%80 W · 152 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Fever | 40c | 808.41$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.05 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Fever | 46c | 576.97$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.96 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Fever | 63c | 535.31$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.03 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Mercury | 59c | 499.98$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Mercury | 61c | 430$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 60c | 430$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Fever | 41c | 400.99$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.94 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mercury | 50c | 316$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.3 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mercury | 31c | 315.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Fever | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fever | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Mercury | 59c | 250.97$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed Fever | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Fever | 40c | 247.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.08 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Fever | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Fever | 61c | 184.44$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Fever | 29c | 157.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Fever | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Fever | 36c | 145.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Fever | 38c | 140$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Mercury | 61c | 128$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fever | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…9995backed Fever | 24c | 94.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Mercury | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Mercury | 32c | 79.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…7c3abacked Mercury | 78c | 64.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Mercury | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Fever | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Mercury | 61c | 42.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fever | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Fever | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Fever | 43c | 31.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Fever | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb6…8ebfbacked Fever | 42c | 28.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mercury | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9c…0f7ebacked Fever | 77c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.