Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c22434226cbc334932cea49b5750059f3eb122a3fab128a6ff67807f482a390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 670$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 487.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 323.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 76c | 297.93$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 261.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 31c | 191.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 20c | 177$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 77c | 170.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 26c | 161.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…24aabacked Yes | 17c | 154.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 141.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe288…7466backed Yes | 12c | 133.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 77c | 131.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 127.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 113.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 107.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 104.64$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 78c | 104.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 23c | 102.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 80c | 90.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 27c | 84.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 82.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 80.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 76c | 71.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 71.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 69.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 33c | 68.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 72c | 63.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 26c | 61.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 33c | 59.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 31c | 58.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 56.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 51.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 32c | 40.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 79c | 37.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 77c | 31.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 29.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 71c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 72c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 75c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.