Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ee220e3ed95736b09926971f09137071377c4a50ece460231da3b6a445e301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 20,649$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.49 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…1ab4backed No | 5c | 10,800$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 7c | 1,897$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 2c | 748.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 5c | 664.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 3c | 473.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 64c | 442.31$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.92 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 9c | 429.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 5c | 418.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 405.08$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 386.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.74 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 329.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 70c | 305.04$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 258.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.53 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 78c | 204.76$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 11c | 202.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 12c | 155.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 69c | 147.36$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 31c | 139.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.78 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 128.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 116.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 110.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 20c | 100.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed No | 66c | 96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 95.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 39c | 93.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 25c | 89.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 13c | 85.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 81.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…ef40backed Yes | 68c | 80.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 13c | 80.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 78.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…24aabacked Yes | 20c | 71.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 65.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 60.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 42c | 60.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 33c | 58.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 25c | 55.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 74c | 55.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 55c | 54.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 25c | 51.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 48.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…474fbacked Yes | 30c | 47.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 38c | 43.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 52c | 42.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 38c | 40.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 36.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 35.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 71c | 34.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 73c | 30.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082d…6bf1backed No | 70c | 28.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 28.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 73c | 24.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 73c | 19.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 75c | 18.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…ac0ebacked No | 79c | 17.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 17.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadb…41a3backed No | 79c | 15.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…2501backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 86°F or higher on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.