Fifa International · resolved market
Will Germany win the UEFA Nations League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cabeabae75934a8c38fd3d76cc32f709780a80756f4a5b4ed3297625e3ea3be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd71a…78c9backed Yes | 40c | 2,001$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 32c | 999.97$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed No | 67c | 557.27$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.9 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 31c | 390.78$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 66c | 373.35$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133e…4224backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9073…13b3backed No | 68c | 282.82$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…4935backed Yes | 34c | 209.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 186$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…2638backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…9792backed Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…e98ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.44per pick | 43cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…1efabacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked No | 67c | 96.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc51…2bedbacked No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…4572backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…7b86backed Yes | 33c | 72.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 32c | 68.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 33c | 67.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…3c76backed Yes | 33c | 54.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fa…ce5ebacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 67c | 25.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e43…2578backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7606…ade4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win the UEFA Nations League?this page
- Will France win the UEFA Nations League?No won
- Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League?Yes won
- Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.