Fifa International · resolved market
Will France win the UEFA Nations League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03a3da6350769a7b03e153155b2ec662216b8e2923777eff6ea386f1650e75af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,217$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdeb…1a50backed No | 75c | 2,008$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 23c | 1,360$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.01 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,224$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…5e86backed Yes | 9c | 977.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…5599backed Yes | 23c | 910$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed52…9122backed Yes | 25c | 406.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 77c | 333.58$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a22bbacked Yes | 17c | 319.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9e…87c9backed Yes | 33c | 303.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes | 26c | 302$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 17c | 229.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 25c | 222$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…0220backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 192$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 25c | 186.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 123 | 27.6%34 W · 89 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 25c | 148.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…63dabacked Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…0d0fbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 20c | 80.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 23c | 73.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 25c | 59.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 80c | 56.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…4572backed Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…070dbacked Yes | 28c | 52.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd52…f190backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d05…94b3backed Yes | 25c | 47.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will France win the UEFA Nations League?this page
- Will Germany win the UEFA Nations League?No won
- Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League?Yes won
- Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.