Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb8e6e63778a612639ad063f703ebba7d320e46b179ccf3cc347b93646697d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Yandex, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 44c | 6,883$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,883.12 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1c9fbacked Team Yandex | 17c | 2,974$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…afadbacked Team Yandex | 57c | 2,481$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.6 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex | 57c | 1,868$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.43 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex | 63c | 1,378$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.2 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…c3a9backed Team Yandex | 74c | 1,224$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed Team Yandex | 56c | 961.97$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.27 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 30c | 947.69$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.15 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 26c | 830.93$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.8 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 36c | 634.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.19 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Aurora | 12c | 508.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.26 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex | 58c | 475.62$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.85 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Yandex | 64c | 469.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…ad4abacked Aurora | 45c | 177.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Team Yandex | 58c | 154.12$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked Team Yandex | 79c | 110.65$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…8ce8backed Aurora | 34c | 97.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…1fdebacked Aurora | 25c | 94.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecf…4542backed Aurora | 11c | 94.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +175.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Yandex | 37c | 90.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…653ebacked Aurora | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Yandex | 52c | 63.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…e85ebacked Team Yandex | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed Team Yandex | 75c | 51.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Yandex | 61c | 50.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Aurora | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Team Yandex | 76c | 46.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Team Yandex | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 27c | 40.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Yandex | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Aurora | 38c | 39.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Team Yandex | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Yandex | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Yandex | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…4e7cbacked Team Yandex | 73c | 13.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.