Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1edcfe82be7bad4bbc0cf06a0d79e5af006b5e1e6df95a34a989b73c6fe546f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Yandex, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed Aurora | 65c | 5,188$3,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.87 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex | 3c | 4,773$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.62 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Yandex | 36c | 3,146$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.1 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex | 36c | 2,414$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.03 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 39c | 911.55$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.75 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Yandex | 71c | 850.91$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Yandex | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Aurora | 29c | 804.32$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.06 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…ad4abacked Aurora | 37c | 735.79$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Team Yandex | 60c | 668.85$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.59 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed Team Yandex | 44c | 540$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.2 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…6d65backed Team Yandex | 57c | 524.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Team Yandex | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex | 71c | 455.67$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.48 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Team Yandex | 67c | 412.52$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.26 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Aurora | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Team Yandex | 39c | 399.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora | 64c | 347.42$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.42 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…c31ebacked Team Yandex | 61c | 330$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…7034backed Aurora | 61c | 328.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora | 58c | 326.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.51 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Yandex | 54c | 244.64$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Team Yandex | 58c | 171.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed8e…e61bbacked Team Yandex | 68c | 147.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9147…baccbacked Team Yandex | 41c | 133.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Yandex | 68c | 130.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Team Yandex | 13c | 130.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Yandex | 40c | 123.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Yandex | 42c | 117.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Yandex | 25c | 110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Yandex | 70c | 107$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Team Yandex | 43c | 106.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Aurora | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Aurora | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Aurora | 57c | 92.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Team Yandex | 61c | 86.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Team Yandex | 23c | 86.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bce…8dc3backed Team Yandex | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Team Yandex | 47c | 81.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team Yandex | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Team Yandex | 42c | 62.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f0…6b39backed Team Yandex | 68c | 60.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Team Yandex | 64c | 60.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed91…8ce8backed Aurora | 34c | 55.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Team Yandex | 68c | 51.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Team Yandex | 44c | 50.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Aurora | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Aurora | 44c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb0…d1bbbacked Aurora | 32c | 46.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Aurora | 37c | 43.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Team Yandex | 52c | 42.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Yandex | 30c | 41.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Aurora | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Team Yandex | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…b213backed Aurora | 54c | 36.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 43c | 36.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…fd20backed Team Yandex | 42c | 35.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Team Yandex | 70c | 34.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…c11abacked Aurora | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…ad81backed Aurora | 60c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…5ca1backed Aurora | 46c | 32.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Aurora | 63c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85fd…4d74backed Aurora | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Team Yandex | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Aurora | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Team Yandex | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…fbf2backed Aurora | 42c | 29.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Team Yandex | 63c | 29.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora | 49c | 22.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4287…3d5ebacked Aurora | 59c | 20.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd4…12f1backed Team Yandex | 69c | 18.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.