Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0153b2a40c4883be82764af9d57e45011da77e7eacbf2a178f35a08405f4e5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Yandex, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 41c | 12,454$5,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,357.76 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Yandex | 62c | 6,704$4,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,144.09 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex | 64c | 6,606$4,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,210.16 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Team Yandex | 63c | 4,727$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 34c | 3,245$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,138.96 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…045fbacked Team Yandex | 60c | 2,454$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 41c | 2,272$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.17 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…3955backed Team Yandex | 64c | 2,120$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.39 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Aurora | 33c | 2,000$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.49 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked Aurora | 40c | 1,909$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.12 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 33c | 1,864$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.8 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 33c | 887.86$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.12 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Yandex | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Team Yandex | 23c | 550.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…ad1dbacked Team Yandex | 63c | 549.99$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 41c | 353.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.02 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…6d65backed Team Yandex | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…ad4abacked Aurora | 39c | 253.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Team Yandex | 61c | 237.13$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.65 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Aurora | 44c | 227.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Team Yandex | 69c | 203.66$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.91 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Team Yandex | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Yandex | 59c | 198.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Yandex | 58c | 167.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7b…0cc9backed Team Yandex | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Team Yandex | 70c | 143.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Aurora | 39c | 128.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed Team Yandex | 66c | 113.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…d266backed Team Yandex | 65c | 101.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.93 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…653ebacked Aurora | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex | 60c | 98.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Yandex | 53c | 85.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f3…cbe6backed Team Yandex | 66c | 83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Aurora | 38c | 79.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Aurora | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96f8…2560backed Team Yandex | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Team Yandex | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Aurora | 37c | 59.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…20e7backed Team Yandex | 66c | 57.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Team Yandex | 59c | 40.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Aurora | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Aurora | 36c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…a7a3backed Team Yandex | 39c | 25.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed Team Yandex | 77c | 24.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…59f9backed Team Yandex | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Team Yandex | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.