Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce22063b5659acca2ea9debd8fa1b2cf47ab88f9c36ff238dc7f760782b9a5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 0c | 21,058$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 49c | 1,096$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.84 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 52c | 1,047$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.63 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 970.25$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 701.86$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 40c | 352.36$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.59 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 47c | 323.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.9 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 40c | 291.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.36 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 71c | 219.54$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 192.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 186.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 162.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 49c | 159.83$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 24c | 143.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 37c | 135.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 43c | 135.04$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 73c | 134.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 120.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 36c | 119.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 116.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed Yes | 50c | 114.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 67c | 112.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 66c | 110.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 107.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…1f91backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…7401backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 45c | 98.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 48c | 98.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 42c | 97.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 45c | 91.89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 11c | 88.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 30c | 86.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 20c | 86.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 63c | 81.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 22c | 79.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 56c | 79.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…eae6backed Yes | 62c | 78.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 48c | 76.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed Yes | 17c | 74.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 39c | 69.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…deb4backed Yes | 67c | 67.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed Yes | 65c | 65.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 48c | 62.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 68c | 57.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 58c | 53.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 33c | 53.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 48c | 49.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 67c | 47.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 41c | 47.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 66c | 44.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…56f6backed Yes | 63c | 40.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed Yes | 52c | 39.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 38.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 60c | 35.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1542…ee9dbacked No | 47c | 35.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 63c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 62c | 31.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6a…1801backed Yes | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…ddb7backed Yes | 62c | 30.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…2b86backed Yes | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76b…00f4backed No | 45c | 27.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 39c | 27.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 56c | 27.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 59c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 53c | 26.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 62c | 25.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 55c | 24.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed No | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 47c | 23.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 46c | 22.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…dd84backed No | 46c | 22.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed Yes | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 61c | 21.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…2a0dbacked No | 53c | 20.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 68c | 20.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed Yes | 64c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.