Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x848dbc0eb987d86c3f2f6ece8b1a2128473e72625df3ad3c000f0472ed1dccdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,146$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.09 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 578.9$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 506.35$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 27c | 375.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 32c | 345.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.54 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 67c | 300.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.3 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 68c | 291.49$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 31c | 220.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.19 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 78c | 199.56$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 66c | 177.69$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 30c | 171.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed34…2309backed Yes | 66c | 145.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 69c | 143.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 57c | 133.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 132.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 131.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 130.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 53c | 121.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 116.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 52c | 103.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 40c | 97.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 97.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Yes | 77c | 93.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 57c | 90.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 49c | 90.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 68c | 85.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 66c | 84.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 54c | 84.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 79.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 77c | 75.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 65c | 73.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 69c | 73.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 69.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed No | 21c | 66.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 69c | 64.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed Yes | 28c | 60.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 27c | 58.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 55c | 51.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…8fefbacked Yes | 48c | 48.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 48.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 41c | 47.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 31c | 42.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5e…5441backed No | 73c | 42.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 35c | 40.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed Yes | 46c | 38.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 78c | 37.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 56c | 36.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 71c | 34.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed No | 59c | 33.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 75c | 31.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed Yes | 80c | 31.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…e6e8backed Yes | 34c | 30.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 44c | 30.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 55c | 30.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…db07backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 75c | 29.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b7…c349backed No | 70c | 28.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 69c | 27.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 51c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 24.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked No | 70c | 22.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 20.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 68c | 17.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…f08ebacked No | 69c | 15.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.