NFL · resolved market
Patriots vs. Saints: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d202b250af1d64d9d9115ca5aec2bf6377723b8288fba48f0caeb6cda3fcb5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,050 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 4,446$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,223.01 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 4,288$2,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,144.12 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 51c | 3,266$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.66 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 50c | 2,413$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.64 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Over | 52c | 1,908$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 49c | 1,827$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.44 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…a5d6backed Under | 50c | 1,587$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 50c | 1,353$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.45 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 48c | 1,052$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.04 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Under | 51c | 882.35$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.35 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 318.85$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.82 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…c6bfbacked Over | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 49c | 151.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Over | 51c | 88.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 52c | 52.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a4…5901backed Under | 50c | 42.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…ac08backed Under | 51c | 42.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…c9c9backed Over | 51c | 41.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d9…e67dbacked Over | 52c | 41.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…e34dbacked Over | 51c | 41.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…9a9fbacked Under | 51c | 40.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5233…3933backed Over | 52c | 40.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…2c60backed Over | 50c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143e…23a3backed Under | 51c | 40.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…a079backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…5fadbacked Under | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…006ebacked Over | 52c | 39.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…55b8backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots vs. Saints: O/U 45.5this page
- Patriots vs. SaintsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Saints: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.