NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f5a566f6d90a58e9ffe9f393caffad7980ca0d02adcadf093d500cc3363bfd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Saints | 52c | 57,000$29,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,639.99 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…2c31backed Patriots | 48c | 27,038$12,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,059.98 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Patriots | 48c | 18,459$8,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,598.76 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Saints | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Patriots | 61c | 13,930$8,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,436.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Patriots | 48c | 13,230$6,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,879.6 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Saints | 39c | 12,162$4,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,764.2 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Patriots | 47c | 8,619$4,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,567.84 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Saints | 53c | 8,531$4,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,520 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…2f2dbacked Patriots | 48c | 8,333$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,333.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Saints | 53c | 6,749$3,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,593.94 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Saints | 52c | 5,223$2,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.06 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Patriots | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Saints | 51c | 4,886$2,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.01 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Saints | 53c | 4,591$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.61 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Patriots | 49c | 3,041$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.82 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Saints | 38c | 1,659$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.89 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Patriots | 39c | 1,314$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.42 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…1656backed Patriots | 47c | 1,063$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Saints | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Saints | 51c | 799.97$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Patriots | 47c | 497.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.57 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Saints | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Patriots | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…007bbacked Patriots | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Patriots | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Saints | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Patriots | 49c | 325.35$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.14 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Saints | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Patriots | 47c | 295.19$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.49 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Patriots | 48c | 283$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Patriots | 47c | 218.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Saints | 53c | 208.61$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Patriots | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Patriots | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…552cbacked Patriots | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Patriots | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…9edabacked Patriots | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Saints | 51c | 132.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Saints | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Patriots | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked Saints | 53c | 124.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Patriots | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Patriots | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Saints | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…3378backed Patriots | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Patriots | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Patriots | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Patriots | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…38b2backed Patriots | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Patriots | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Saints | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Saints | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Patriots | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Saints | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…8c00backed Patriots | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Patriots | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Saints | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2356…ddf5backed Patriots | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Patriots | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Patriots | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…74f0backed Patriots | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Saints | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Saints | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4398…e12bbacked Saints | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Patriots | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3491…6037backed Patriots | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Patriots | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Patriots | 47c | 25.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Patriots | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…5d5bbacked Patriots | 49c | 24.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Saints | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Saints | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)this page
- Patriots vs. SaintsPatriots won
- Patriots vs. Saints: O/U 45.5Under won
- Patriots vs. Saints: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.