Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Ugo Humbert vs Adam Walton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d310bf3b400e281cc6f850b1729633a370daf100dc854616b2ecc2395434363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Waltonof Humbert, Walton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Walton | 33c | 15,014$4,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,059.99 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Humbert | 67c | 12,000$8,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,040 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Humbert | 66c | 5,000$3,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,325 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Walton | 34c | 2,918$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.81 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…e617backed Walton | 34c | 2,343$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.45 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Humbert | 66c | 2,273$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Humbert | 49c | 2,000$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.6 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Humbert | 12c | 1,368$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.04 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Walton | 64c | 1,357$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.72 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Humbert | 66c | 1,345$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.89 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Humbert | 67c | 1,020$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.7 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Walton | 29c | 1,015$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Humbert | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Humbert | 17c | 915.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Humbert | 50c | 803.1$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Walton | 57c | 600$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.16 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Walton | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Humbert | 67c | 540$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.8 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Humbert | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Walton | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Walton | 33c | 354.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.55 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Humbert | 42c | 338.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Walton | 58c | 338.1$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Humbert | 45c | 310$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Walton | 34c | 290.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.86 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed Walton | 35c | 284.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Walton | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Walton | 55c | 268.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Humbert | 42c | 240.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…606cbacked Humbert | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Humbert | 44c | 213.41$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Humbert | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Humbert | 51c | 197.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Walton | 56c | 177.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Walton | 57c | 174.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Humbert | 29c | 154.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Walton | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c40…ea3dbacked Humbert | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Humbert | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked Walton | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Walton | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Walton | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Walton | 57c | 88.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Walton | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Humbert | 40c | 76.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Walton | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Humbert | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Walton | 41c | 63.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Walton | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Humbert | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Walton | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Humbert | 67c | 46.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Walton | 63c | 40.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Humbert | 63c | 39.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…f1e4backed Humbert | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Humbert | 67c | 27.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Humbert | 38c | 26.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Walton | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Walton | 61c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1403…19c8backed Humbert | 68c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939f…d740backed Humbert | 68c | 18.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.