NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d3248bcbeb55aee0013247a6b9a0dd89cd1b96b7dd1b24e9a89870b818da464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 51c | 6,713$3,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,289.2 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 777.02$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…5af4backed Over | 53c | 595$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.53 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 18c | 558.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.93 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 346.35$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 20c | 330.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 316.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.52 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 79c | 286.25$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 183.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…1620backed Under | 51c | 154.44$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6054…bcedbacked Under | 27c | 146.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 42c | 142.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 48c | 106.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…0feebacked Over | 50c | 103.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…7efebacked Under | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…6edebacked Over | 60c | 81.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 49c | 59.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 57.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1a2dbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 27c | 49.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Under | 55c | 48.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 27c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 54c | 45.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 47c | 40.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 38.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc835…1ab3backed Over | 48c | 32.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 52c | 31.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 50c | 25.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…0d3bbacked Under | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…709abacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 75c | 19.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5this page
- Raptors vs. PacersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Raptors (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.