Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Alex Bolt
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d43870ae2b0c32607a00b40b8a6ee7eeed148c92c83728ac10f8080c78c71df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhangof Zhang, Bolt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bolt | 1c | 3,884$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bolt | 28c | 3,425$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.93 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Zhang | 67c | 1,703$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.08 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…6c27backed Zhang | 79c | 679.75$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.75 | 1,186 | 62.8%745 W · 441 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Zhang | 79c | 635$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Zhang | 66c | 451.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Bolt | 24c | 413.75$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Bolt | 39c | 374.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bolt | 14c | 296.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Bolt | 33c | 242.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 231 | 26%60 W · 171 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f46…4f2bbacked Zhang | 66c | 230.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Bolt | 32c | 196.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 990 | 56%554 W · 436 L | +32.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Bolt | 10c | 181.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…de5fbacked Bolt | 28c | 173.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 168 | 30.4%51 W · 117 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…cd03backed Bolt | 28c | 158.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Zhang | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Zhang | 70c | 141.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Bolt | 27c | 133.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Zhang | 75c | 112.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Bolt | 25c | 108.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Zhang | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Bolt | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8b…a0cabacked Zhang | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 126 | 59.5%75 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Zhang | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 273 | 44.7%122 W · 151 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Bolt | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Zhang | 73c | 92.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | +6.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Bolt | 22c | 85.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Zhang | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…9827backed Zhang | 68c | 66.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Zhang | 66c | 60.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 202 | 70.8%143 W · 59 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Bolt | 25c | 58.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -12.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…8b7dbacked Bolt | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 268 | 37.3%100 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2139backed Zhang | 67c | 45.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…49e9backed Bolt | 26c | 43.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Zhang | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Bolt | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…352bbacked Zhang | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…9baebacked Zhang | 68c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 908 | 54.5%495 W · 413 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Zhang | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Zhang | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Zhang | 64c | 23.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Zhang | 65c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Zhang | 62c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…9169backed Zhang | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Zhang | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.