Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d82daff7c8a2b6fa725630c7cd1235b6e35b96dd2724b2fd4b169503822dc17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 1c | 31,862$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f012backed Yes | 40c | 1,351$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…ae3dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,311$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 737.32$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 678.64$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 39c | 472.16$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.14 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 465.9$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.94 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 235.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 213.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 8c | 201.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 189.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 183.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 179.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 152.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 141.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 127.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 114.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 113.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 36c | 111.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 95.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 93.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 14c | 85.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 34c | 73.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 71.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 14c | 71.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 64.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 64.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 62.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 41c | 62.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 35c | 62.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…e60cbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 62c | 59.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 57.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 57.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 61c | 50.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…1eb0backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 49.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 31c | 49.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 48.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 47.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 44.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 30c | 42.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 75c | 40.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 29c | 36.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 35.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 34.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…e44cbacked No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 27.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 26.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 46c | 24.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 78c | 23.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 47c | 23.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 21.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 62c | 20.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 19.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 80c | 16.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.