Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a4763b6d3c959398565adb4ed9df07945629466206b227ac86938fa351a4db7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 633$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 7c | 405.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 28c | 321.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 285.76$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.57 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 273.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.36 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 271.82$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 57c | 247.28$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.06 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 223$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.25 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 214.26$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 214.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 200.18$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 199.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 170.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 162.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 159.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 67c | 156.39$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 151.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 50c | 127.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 122.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 117.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 114.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 105.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 98.66$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 60c | 95.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 52c | 94.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 55c | 90.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 85.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 82.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 48c | 78.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 27c | 72.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 24c | 69.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 67.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 66.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 37c | 61.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 75c | 57.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 65c | 56.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…4f7cbacked Yes | 40c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 52.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 44c | 49.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 47c | 45.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 53c | 44.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 43.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 39.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 37.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 46c | 36.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed Yes | 34c | 34.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 71c | 33.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed No | 52c | 33.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 30.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 51c | 29.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 53c | 28.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598f…528bbacked No | 58c | 26.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 70c | 25.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 56c | 23.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 48c | 23.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 51c | 23.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 44c | 23.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 22.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 56c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 18.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.