Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d877a8de447ee56938b688e3d5767e39cf0df726790569d515f56b05539f4a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 46c | 1,693$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.19 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 54c | 500$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 57c | 452.73$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 182.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 164.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 157.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 145.8$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 132.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 128.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 41c | 120.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 55c | 110.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 103.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 48c | 103.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd9…3c35backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 67c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 93.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 70c | 76.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 75.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 33c | 69.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 49c | 62.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 54c | 61.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 42c | 61.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 60.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 60.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 54.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 54c | 51.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 46.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 43.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…d0bcbacked No | 69c | 36.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 58c | 35.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 29.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 69c | 29.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 46c | 28.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 26.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 70c | 25.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 25.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 77c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 67c | 24.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 56c | 22.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 20.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 57c | 18.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.