Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da7c4c7bb6450384e2c5531bff911fae9d5185c46526917ce9d75dfe5350e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0273…14d6backed No | 0c | 10,882$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 3,746$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 8c | 1,493$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…2762backed No | 3c | 1,034$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 5c | 960.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 12c | 823.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 6c | 451.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 66c | 406$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.66 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed No | 9c | 319.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 76c | 281.63$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 209$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 6c | 204.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 67c | 171.82$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 14c | 165.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 39c | 134.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…8211backed Yes | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 32c | 50.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…719abacked Yes | 49c | 45.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 25c | 42.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 4?this page
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 3?No won
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 5?No won
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 6?No won
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 7?No won
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 8?No won
- Will Trump sign the Reconciliation bill on July 9 or later?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.