Asian League · resolved market
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dcac48c3513dfabb810bd5eab5081aa9cb36a114393a3b39f28e0eda8e98c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 14c | 2,772$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.13 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 1,723$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.97 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 21c | 1,248$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.93 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141d…7ea0backed Over | 16c | 705.38$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +218.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Under | 79c | 632.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3c…ba4bbacked Over | 24c | 595$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ef…9199backed Under | 76c | 595$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 14c | 465.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.65 | 424 | 25.9%110 W · 314 L | -32.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 17c | 419.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.16 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…82d1backed Under | 80c | 376.78$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 21c | 307.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.83 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…0401backed Under | 76c | 277.26$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6412…2297backed Over | 24c | 277.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 20cpaid | +235%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 20c | 185.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 67c | 146.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 74c | 134.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 77c | 131.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 21c | 130.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 1,109 | 46.2%512 W · 597 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 9c | 116.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 50c | 96.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 22c | 95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 21c | 87.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab7…1ae5backed Under | 79c | 77.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 19c | 68.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 22c | 68.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…53f1backed Under | 53c | 56.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 20c | 51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 80c | 51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 31c | 48.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 37c | 33.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 38c | 32.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…a444backed Under | 79c | 22.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Under | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 36 | 83.3%30 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 78cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 76c | 18.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Under | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 77c | 13.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…585cbacked Under | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 80cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)Chengdu Rongcheng FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.