Australian A League · resolved market
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dce9f11e112b6b571f52494d9fcc73f98ee7bc8df807fe33758ca567f1b9056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 75c | 9,912$7,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,477.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 9,097$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.92 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…cd41backed No | 67c | 2,986$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Yes | 50c | 1,930$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 44c | 1,368$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.48 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x806b…5cd8backed Yes | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 1,154$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.34 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 24c | 747.87$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.49 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 599$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 41c | 567.67$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.95 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…95babacked Yes | 38c | 531.58$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 55c | 487.25$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.98 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 26c | 484.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 25c | 435$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…c0eabacked No | 76c | 330$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5d…2d94backed No | 76c | 185.53$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 170.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9249backed No | 76c | 160$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 21c | 134.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 19c | 107.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…a6a0backed Yes | 24c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed No | 75c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 19c | 76.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 47c | 69.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 76c | 61.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 48.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 37c | 45.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 74c | 43.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…9c7dbacked No | 76c | 31.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-02-07?No won
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.