Australian A League · resolved market
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x536e3e3972d122b74a6ca9bcd8c5a9af5d6db715f527c04f7f5730b99f66883d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 3,242$2,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578.7 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 2,703$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.48 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 2,476$1,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,946.74 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 14c | 2,086$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.06 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,842$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.49 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 1,458$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.33 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d6…926ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 20c | 1,042$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.97 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.38 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 22c | 900$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 14c | 747.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 39c | 727.55$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.55 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 21c | 714.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.29 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 63c | 499.99$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 20c | 499.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Yes | 50c | 488.8$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +146.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7100…b346backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 8c | 377$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.84 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 10c | 331.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes | 17c | 262$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 260.76$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 21c | 232.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.99 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…a46fbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 64c | 223.01$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 22c | 214.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 80c | 200.69$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 13c | 190$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 21c | 175.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 48c | 150.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Yes | 20c | 137.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.64 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 23c | 134.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 133.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed No | 80c | 133$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5865…696abacked Yes | 77c | 130.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 34c | 114$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 19c | 102.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 46c | 99.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…5fbbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 16c | 95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 66c | 93.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 23c | 88.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8dccbacked Yes | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab0…cfedbacked Yes | 19c | 77.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 35c | 56.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3073…c6adbacked Yes | 22c | 55.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…3d47backed Yes | 74c | 54.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Yes | 33c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 25c | 42.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…2b47backed Yes | 75c | 39.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…bb41backed No | 40c | 37.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 80c | 35.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…10a3backed Yes | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 70c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…5a1dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.